鄱阳湖区干旱与变化

以有效干旱天数的出现时间为依据,分析鄱阳湖区干旱的季节性特征.根据重旱与特旱年份7～10月降水空间分布,分析翻阳湖区干旱的空间变化特点.     

江西省都昌县2000年旱情的思考

通过都昌县2000年旱情及受灾情况的分析，揭示了产生这种现象的原因，并且提出了相应解决问题的对策。     

Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

Comparison of soil moisture at different depths for drought monitoring based on improved soil moisture anomaly percentage index

To better understand the characteristics and mechanisms of droughts at different drought stages, this study selected the Xiangjiang River Basin in China as the study area, and evaluated soil moisture (SM) at different depths for drought monitoring, through SM data simulated with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. To solve the problem of unreasonable drought/wetness classifications based on the soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI), an improved soil moisture anomaly percentage index (ISMAPI) was developed by introducing the Box–Cox transformation. The drought/wetness frequency generated by ISMAPI demonstrated preferable spatial comparability in comparison with those from SMAPI. The lag time of ISMAPI relative to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was closely related to soil depth, and was characterized by a fast response in shallow soil layers and a relatively slow response in deep soil layers. SM in shallow soil layers provided a measure for monitoring short-term droughts, whereas SM in deep soil layers provided a better measure for long-term persistent drought events. Furthermore, the occurrence and mitigation time of drought events identified by SM in deep soil layers usually lagged behind that identified by SM in shallow soil layers. Compared with deep SM, SM in shallow soil layers responded faster to meteorological anomalies, thereby resulting in shorter periods of SM persistence in shallow soil layers than in deep soil layers. This can explain the differences of SM at different depths in drought monitoring.     

基于多源遥感数据协同反演森林地表土壤水分研究

土壤水分在土壤监测中是一项重要的指标,对于农业生产、生态环境以及水资源管理有着重要的影响。随着遥感建模与反演理论的不断成熟,其逐渐成为分析土壤指标的重要技术与手段。因此,利用光学影像与雷达影像数据,以大兴安岭地区漠河市为研究区域,分别建立以Landsat 8为数据源的土壤水分反演模型和由Landsat 8影像数据与GF-3卫星数据协同反演的土壤水分反演模型,将反演结果与实际测得数据进行对比验证,并评价所建立的反演模型。结果表明：①对研究区地温进行反演,利用地表温度（Ts）与归一化差异湿度指数NDMI构建Ts-NDMI特征空间,结合实测数据可以发现Ts-NDMI特征空间土壤水分反演模型的反演结果与实测土壤含水量为负相关性;②协同GF-3卫星数据和Landsat 8遥感影像数据所建立的土壤水分反演模型能得到质量较高的反演结果,且在高植被覆盖度地区,利用该协同反演模型得到的反演结果比利用单一光学数据源所建模型得到的反演结果精度高,为今后高植被覆盖度地区土壤湿度的研究提供了新途径。     

基于多源干旱指数的黄淮海平原干旱监测

黄淮海平原是我国重要的粮食基地,由于季风、气候等的影响,干旱频发,严重影响了粮食生产,实时监测黄淮海平原的干旱情况,对于合理制定农业政策、指导农业生产具有重要意义。基于MODIS反射率产品、温度产品和气象站点降雨数据等,采用改进归一化水指数(MNDWI)、植被健康指数(VHI)和标准化降水指数(SPI),对黄淮海平原2001~2012年干旱情况进行监测,分析其空间、季节、年际变化规律及其潜在原因,并根据结果确定3个指数的使用条件。结果发现:黄淮海平原燕山山麓和太行山山麓受西伯利亚冬季风的影响,同时由于春天植被覆盖少,水份蒸发较快,易发生春旱;农作物区在海拔25~100m之间比其他地区要干旱;12年间2003年干旱最弱。所采用遥感指数由于对水分温度敏感适用于实时监测,而气象指数SPI适用于长时间序列的干旱变化监测,亦可用于干旱预测。     

基于标准水资源指数(SWRI)的流域水文干旱评估——以海河北系为例

构建了一个新的水文干旱评估指标——标准水资源指数(SWRI),结合分布式水循环模型、Copula函数及统计检验等方法,形成了一套完整的水文干旱识别、评估及特征分析的基本框架。以海河北系为例,定量识别了1956—2009年间的水文干旱事件,并对其干旱特征及变化规律进行了剖析。结果表明:海河北系近54年发生的34次水文干旱主要集中在短历时、低强度、小面积区间内,空间上主要分布在张家口、大同及北京等地区;干旱指标的联动关系上,干旱历时、强度与面积指标间呈显著的线性或指数相关关系,90%的水文干旱历时低于40个月、干旱面积占比不超过43%,干旱强度低于9.0;在给定的干旱特征指标值(如干旱面积)条件下,另一干旱指标值越大(如强度越大)干旱发生概率越小,且存在明显的特征区间;单变量水文干旱重现期介于联合重现期和同现重现期之间。     

2011年春夏季江西旱情水文分析

文章介绍了2011年春夏季江西旱情,并对未来旱涝并存的情况作了阐述.     

Integrating scientific modeling and supporting dynamic hazard management with a GeoAgent-based representation of human–environment interactions: A drought example in Central Pennsylvania, USA

Recent natural disasters indicate that modern technologies for environmental monitoring, modeling, and forecasting are not well integrated with cross-level social responses in many hazard-management systems. This research addresses this problem through a Java-based multi-agent prototype system, GeoAgent-based Knowledge System (GeoAgentKS). This system allows: (1) computer representation of institutional regulations and behavioral rules used by multiple social institutions and individuals in cross-level human–environment interactions, (2) integration of this representation with scientific modeling of dynamic hazard development, and (3) application of automated reasoning that suggests to users the appropriate actions for supporting cooperative social responses. This paper demonstrates the software architecture of GeoAgentKS and presents such an integrated approach by modeling the drought management processes in Central Pennsylvania, USA. The results show that it is possible to use GeoAgentKS to represent multilevel human–environment interactions and to use those interactions as input to decision making in hazard management.     

An integrated package for drought monitoring,prediction and analysis to aid drought modeling and assessment

Due to severe drought events and disastrous impacts in recent decades, substantial efforts have been devoted recently to drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis for aiding drought preparedness plans and mitigation measures. Providing an overview of these aspects of drought research, this study presents an integrated R package and illustrates a wide range of its applications for drought modeling and assessment based on univariate and multivariate drought indices for both operational and research purposes. The package also includes statistical prediction of drought in a probabilistic manner based on multiple drought indicators, which serves as a baseline for drought prediction. The univariate and multivariate drought risk analysis of drought properties and indices is also presented. Finally, potential extensions of this package are also discussed. The package is provided freely to public to aid drought early warning and management.